828
WTPZ45 KNHC 132036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (EP97) LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND THE CENTER
HAS RECENTLY BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXPOSED CENTER, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO T1.5 AT 18Z WITH DATA T-NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS, CONTINUED
MODERATE SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE DEEP CONVECTION WANING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE THE
END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/7 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STEER IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
EVEN MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GDM AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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