389
AXPZ20 KNHC 132046
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 134.0W AT 13/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 17 TO 18 FT, OR 5.5 M. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF NORBERT. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER THAT.
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR
17.2N 117.2W AT 13/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM
IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 690 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
LOWELL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W FROM 03N TO 14N TO JUST OFFSHORE
AND SOUTHWEST OF OAXACA, MEXICO, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 20 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA AT 10N77W TO 05.5N105.5W TO 09N112W, THEN RESUMES
FROM 15N119W TO 10N128W, THEN RESUMES FROM 16N134W TO 11N140W.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NORBERT AND
T.D FIFTEEN-E, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 02N
TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 131W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 99W, AND BETWEEN
103W AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
FRESH N GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO NEAR 17.0N 118.2W MON MORNING,
THEN MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO 16.7N 119.8W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, LOCALLY STRONG MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN AGAIN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LOCALLY
STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE AGAIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT AT TIMES. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS WILL
BUILD WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT, EXCEPT
SLIGHT SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 16N AND WEST OF
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH
OF 04N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 19.2N 136.0W MON MORNING,
19.7N 138.6W MON AFTERNOON, 20.2N 141.4W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 20.7N 144.0W TUE AFTERNOON, BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 20.8N 146.9W WED MORNING, AND DISSIPATE
WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17.0N 118.2W MON MORNING, MOVE TO 16.7N
119.8W MON AFTERNOON, 16.5N 121.6W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 16.4N 123.6W TUE AFTERNOON, 16.3N 125.7W
WED MORNING, AND 16.1N 128.1W WED AFTERNOON. FIFTEEN-E WILL
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES TO 16.0N 133.0W THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 04N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL/NE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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