254
WTPZ45 KNHC 140235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED AND EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. USING MEASUREMENTS WITH THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN, THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
OBSERVATIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING
AFFECTED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE
MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
CALLED FOR AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY
OR SO, WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS
OR SOONER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF AROUND 260/9 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK
WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST
AS, THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS,
HCCA, GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.8N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 15.7N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 15.4N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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