645
AXPZ20 KNHC 140358
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 135.3W AT 14/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE UP TO 17 FT, OR 5 M. THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF NORBERT, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT. NORBERT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
12 H OR SO, NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 118.3W AT
14/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT TO 240
NM ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION ON A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM
STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO, WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT AND FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 05N TO 13N, MOVING WEST AT
15-20 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 08N115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM
05N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N105W TO ACROSS THE MEXICAN
COAST OF NAYARIT. FRESH N GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, LOCALLY STRONG MON
NIGHT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. LOOKING AHEAD,
EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR- GALE N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT, EXCEPT
SLIGHT SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 137.2W MON MORNING, 20.0N 139.8W
MON EVENING, THEN MOVE WEST OF THE AREA TO 20.4N 142.5W TUE MORNING.
NORBERT WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.6N 145.2W TUE EVENING,
AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. MEANWHILE, FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.8N 119.6W MON MORNING, MOVE TO 16.5N
121.4W MON EVENING, 16.3N 123.4W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 16.0N 125.8W TUE EVENING, 15.7N 128.3W
WED MORNING, AND 15.4N 130.8W WED EVENING. FIFTEEN-E WILL BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES TO 15.5N 135.5W LATE THU. ELSEWHERE, A
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 05N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH
OF 22N AND EAST OF 125W THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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