859
WTPZ45 KNHC 140839
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO REPORT WITH THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE HOVERING IN THE 30 KT RANGE. WITHOUT MUCH APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE DEPRESSION'S STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADE A SHORT-TERM JOG SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, LIKELY INFLUENCED BY NEARBY CONVECTION, AND
ITS INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 255/8 KT. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH
SOME GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY A SIGNIFICANT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE PLACED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR ADVISORY, PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS TRACK LIES CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
(GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.
THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY
IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM IN CHECK, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
NORTHWEST DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR IS HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
ITS CENTER. THUS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY, IN LINE WITH THE HCCA INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO DECREASE AFTER
THE NEXT 24-36 H, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE NOT
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS, INSTEAD SHOWING A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY WITHIN THE
LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PRIOR ADVISORY, BUT MOVES UP THE TIMING OF REMNANT LOW STATUS TO
72 H, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
IN THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 16.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.1N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.4N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 14.7N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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