277
AXPZ20 KNHC 140908
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 136.4W AT 14/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE UP TO 18 FT, OR 5.5 M. THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. NORBERT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 118.9W AT
14/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT TO 240
NM ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION ON A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM
STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO, WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT AND FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W/101W FROM 05N TO 13N, MOVING WEST
AT 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 12N
BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N105W TO ACROSS THE MEXICAN
COAST OF SINALOA. FRESH N GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT
STRONG TO NEAR- GALE N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT, EXCEPT
SLIGHT SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL MOVE TO 19.7N 138.4W THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 20.2N 141.2W TUE MORNING, BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 20.5N 143.9W TUE AFTERNOON, 20.7N 146.4W
WED MORNING, AND DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, FIFTEEN-E
WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.3N 120.1W THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 16.1N 122.3W TUE MORNING, AND TO 15.8N 124.6W
TUE AFTERNOON. FIFTEEN-E WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 15.4N 127.1W WED MORNING, THEN MOVE TO 15.0N 129.6W WED
AFTERNOON. FIFTEEN-E WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 14.7N
132.2W THU MORNING, THEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO THE 14.5N 137.0W EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE, A CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 05N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH
OF 22N AND EAST OF 125W THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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