705
WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION DUE TO ONGOING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE MOST RECENT TAFB
DVORAK FIX WAS T2.0/30 KT, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 27-34 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 240/8 KT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE NEARBY CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM BEING
STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR THE CYCLONE AND
INCREASE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH
(HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TOO MUCH
STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. DESPITE
THIS, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H. BASED ON THIS, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. WHILE THERE
IS A PERIOD BETWEEN 24-48 H WHERE THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS PERIOD TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER 48 H, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT GETS LOST WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, BUT KEEPS
35 KT INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.1N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 15.3N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 15.2N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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