641
AXPZ20 KNHC 141601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 137.8W AT 14/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE UP TO 16 FT. NORBERT IS A SHEARED STORM, WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 23N
BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15
KT AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND NORBERT COULD BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 119.7W AT
14/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 19N
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 129W. THE DEPRESSION
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 KT AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT AND FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W FROM 04N TO 13N, MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
17N BETWEEN 98W AND 108W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N95W TO 06N110W TO
07N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 95W, FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND
120W, FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 134W, AND FROM 06N TO 12N
W OF 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES
BETWEEN CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. MODERTE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WHILE MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
CHIAPAS TO GUERRERO. HOWEVER, STRONG TO GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN
THE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE NW WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED ARE N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 7 TO 8 FT N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN
AGAIN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LOCALLY STRONG
NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N
GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS FROM THIS GAP WIND EXTENDS TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 02N TO THE W OF THE GALAPAGOS TO 114W. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 19.8N 139.8W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 20.2N 142.4W TUE MORNING,
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 20.4N 145.1W TUE EVENING, 20.6N
147.8W WED MORNING, AND DISSIPATE WED EVENING.
MEANWHILE, FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
16.1N 121.0W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 15.9N 123.2W TUE MORNING,
15.6N 125.3W TUE EVENING, 15.4N 127.4W WED MORNING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 15.3N 129.6W WED EVENING, AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 15.2N 132.1W THU MORNING. FIFTEEN-E WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 15.2N 137.0W EARLY
FRI.
ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 05N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE NORTH OF 22N AND EAST OF 125W THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK.
RAMOS
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