682
WTPZ45 KNHC 142035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION
AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THE CONVECTION AWAY AND
PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE CENTER IS ALSO
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS IS IN THE RANGE OF 27-34 KT. AS
SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT 30 KT.
BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION, THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A RIDGE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36-48 H. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSER TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND (GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO
THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ADVECTING SOME DRY
AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 H. AS A RESULT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD BETWEEN 24-48 H WHERE THE
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS PERIOD TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER.
AFTER 48 H, THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION INTO THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, AND IS
SLIGHTLY UNDER THE HCCA GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 16.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.7N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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