801
AXPZ20 KNHC 142204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2150 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 139.2W AT 14/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE UP TO 15 FT. NORBERT IS A SHEARED STORM, WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 134W
AND 139W. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 KT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 120.5W AT
14/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 12 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W
AND 121W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 09N
TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 127W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 9 KT AND THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT AND FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 04N TO 13N, MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
15N BETWEEN 91W AND 108W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N97W TO 06N122W TO
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 93W, AND FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN
106W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES
BETWEEN CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERTE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WHILE MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
CHIAPAS TO GUERRERO. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE NW WINDS OF THE
SAME SPEED ARE N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 7
TO 8 FT N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N GAP WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS FROM THIS GAP WIND EXTENDS TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NORBERT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.S. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 02N TO THE W OF THE GALAPAGOS TO 114W. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 20.0N 141.3W TUE MORNING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO
20.2N 143.9W TUE AFTERNOON, 20.4N 146.6W WED MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.7N
121.8W TUE MORNING, MOVE TO 16.6N 123.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 16.4N
125.4W WED MORNING, 16.4N 127.3W WED AFTERNOON, 16.6N 129.7W THU
MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 16.9N 132.1W THU
AFTERNOON. FIFTEEN-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 17.5N 136.4W FRI AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 05N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE NORTH OF 22N AND EAST OF 125W THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RAMOS
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