280
WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EXPOSED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREA, DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT AFFECTING
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE CENTER HAS RAN OUT FARTHER AHEAD TO THE
WEST OF THE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY, NOW ABOUT 40-45 N
MI FROM THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 29-35 KT. AN
EARLIER ASCAT-B OVERPASS AT 14/1630 UTC SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 27 KT
LOCATED 60 TO 80 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT
PASS.
SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAVE BEEN A BIT
ERRATIC, BUT GENERALLY INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST,
OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD KEEP IT ON A SIMILAR HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE CHANGING SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO
TURN TO A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND LIES BETWEEN THE FARTHER NORTH TVCN AND THE FARTHER SOUTH HCCA
AND GDMI. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS QUITE
LARGE FROM HOUR 24 ONWARD, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BELOW AVERAGE.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. EVEN
THOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 H, THE
INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO STRENGTHEN BEYOND A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN HOW FAR ANY
CONVECTION IS FROM THE CENTER CURRENTLY, AND THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REACHES A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE
DEPRESSION COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL OR DISSIPATE
SOONER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 16.5N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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