167
AXPZ20 KNHC 150322
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEWLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR
20.2N 140.5W AT 15/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ABOUT 13 FT.
NORBERT REMAINS A HEAVILY SHEARED STORM, WITH A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 120-150 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTWARD AND
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST- TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW TOMORROW.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 121.6W AT
15/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 12 FT. THE CENTER OF FIFTEEN-E
REMAINS EXPOSED, BUT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60-240 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CENTER. FIFTEEN-E HAS A COMPACT AND WELL-ORGANIZED CENTER,
AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
OVERNIGHT. BUT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY AS IT
CONTINUES IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO START
WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NORBERT AND FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORIES AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W FROM 04N TO 13N, MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W
AND 105W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N115W TO 14N130W TO
BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N
TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W, AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR THE GULF OF
FONSECA AND THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE OFF WESTERN OAXACA AND EASTERN
GUERRERO IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. FARTHER NORTH, N SWELL ALONG WITH
FRESH N WINDS ARE SUPPORTING COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WEST OF
GUADALUPE ISLAND. 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IS SUPPORTING FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE STARTING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FOLLOWING A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSING TO THE WEST FARTHER SOUTH. FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OFF GUERRERO BEYOND 90 NM FOLLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN AGAIN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N
GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS FROM THIS GAP WIND EXTENDS TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH MON, AND SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E.
AWAY FROM THE IMPACTS OF T.D. NORBERT AND T.D. FIFTEEN-E, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 02N TO THE W OF THE GALAPAGOS TO 115W. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER
MOVES WEST OF 140W OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW NORBERT WEST OF 135W FROM 18N TO 28N THROUGH TUE.
FIFTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.7N 121.8W
TUE MORNING, MOVE TO 16.6N 123.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 16.4N 125.4W WED
MORNING, 16.4N 127.3W WED AFTERNOON, 16.6N 129.7W THU MORNING,
AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 16.9N 132.1W THU AFTERNOON.
FIFTEEN-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 17.5N
136.4W FRI AFTERNOON.
CHRISTENSEN
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