853
WTPZ45 KNHC 150839
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
INFRARED AND PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. RECENT 0519 UTC METOP-B AND 0541 UTC
METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING
ELONGATED, AND STRETCHED OUT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 28 KT. THEREFORE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 260/9 KT. A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND
TRENDS TOWARDS THE HCCA AND SIMPLE TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WITHIN A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT A DAY, THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO
AN EVEN DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.1N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 15.5N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 15.6N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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