658
WTPZ45 KNHC 151446
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CONVECTION IS STILL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PER INFRARED AND PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE 0804 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 260/10 KT. A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
RELIED ON THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA AIDS.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WITHIN A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
NEAR A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE CENTER. WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY, THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
A COUPLE DAYS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION. THUS, THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. NO
LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.6N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 15.6N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 16.2N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JACKSON/BLAKE/MUCCILLI
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