892
AXPZ20 KNHC 151500
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 123.9W AT
15/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 12 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W
AND 124W. ONGOING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY FIFTEEN-E MAINLY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N
TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO WED, AND WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WED NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE GAP WINDS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 105W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 10N EAST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 4-7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH SE TO S WINDS PULSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED. LARGE N SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR
90W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM THIS GAP WIND EXTENDS TO THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK, THEN PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT IS NEAR 20.5N 143.1W AT 1500 UTC,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACTIVE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER, REACHING FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST CPHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/HFOTCPCP1.SHTML AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/HFOTCMCP1.SHTML FOR
MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE, N SWELL TO 8 FT IS IMPACTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
CROSS THE EQUATOR AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 04N BETWEEN 100W
AND 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS FOLLOWING NORBERT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE TODAY EAST OF 140W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WILL MOVE TO 15.8N 125.4W THIS
EVENING, 15.6N 127.2W WED MORNING, 15.6N 129.1W WED EVENING,
15.6N 131.2W THU MORNING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 15.8N
133.5W THU EVENING, AND 16.2N 136.0W FRI MORNING. FIFTEEN-E WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY SAT.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 04N WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH
LATE TODAY, AS WILL THE NORTHERLY SWELL NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 120W
AND 125W.
AL
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