794
WTPZ45 KNHC 152041
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN
18Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER
HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED THAN EARLIER TODAY, ALONG WITH WEAKER
WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT, PER THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHICH ALSO MIRRORS THE DROP IN RECENT
CONVENTIONAL ESTIMATES.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 255/10 KT. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THAT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LESS DEFINED, THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY LESS
RESILIENT TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SHEAR. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 25 KT AND BRINGS UP THE DISSIPATION
TIME TO 24 HOURS, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
EVEN POSSIBLE IT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.0N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JACKSON/BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page