921
AXPZ20 KNHC 160232
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N
TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO WED, AND WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WED NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE GAP WINDS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 106W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N116W. IT RESUMES
FROM 13N128W TO 13N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 00N TO 12N EAST OF 132W, AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 135W
AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH SE TO S WINDS PULSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED. LARGE N SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR
90W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK, THEN PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 125.8W AT 16/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 12 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W
AND 125W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THEN DISSIPATE BY THU
MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FIFTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 03N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, EVEN AS FIFTEEN-E DISSIPATES, A BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN N
SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM 15N TO
25N WEST OF 125W BETWEEN THE REMNANT TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 03N WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
CHRISTENSEN
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