667
AXPZ20 KNHC 160824
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0820 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N
TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND THU, AND
WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRIEFLY THU
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE GAP WINDS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 108W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 15N126W, THEN FROM 13N130W TO BEYOND 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
85W AND 95W, FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W, FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W, AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 135W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG
N TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 6-8 FT LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR
90W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK, THEN PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE WITHIN 90 TO
120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N126W,
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIFTEEN-E. THE LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE W-SW AT 10 KT. A
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 0530 UTC INDICATED FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS ALL PART OF A LARGER AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA, REACHING FROM 14N TO
24N WEST OF 120W. FARTHER SOUTH, CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8
FT IS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, EVEN AS REMNANT LOW FIFTEEN-E DISSIPATES TODAY,
A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK FROM 15N TO 25N WEST OF 125W BETWEEN THE REMNANT TROUGH AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 03N WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
CHRISTENSEN
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