897
AXPZ20 KNHC 161432
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NE
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND THU, AND WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRIEFLY THU NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE GAP WINDS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 111W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N97W TO 12N114W TO
10N120W, THEN FROM 10N131W TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 92W, AND FROM 04N TO
14N BETWEEN 104W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR
90W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMNANT LOW OF TD FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16N128W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE WITHIN
120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS IS ALL PART OF A LARGER
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA, REACHING
FROM 14N TO 23N WEST OF 125W. FARTHER SOUTH, CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL TO 8 FT IS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 04N BETWEEN 110W AND
125W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED
SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM 15N TO 25N WEST OF 125W. THE
SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 03N WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
AL
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