278
AXPZ20 KNHC 162014
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NE
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU, AND WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRIEFLY THU NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE GAP WINDS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE MAP WITH AXIS NEAR
99W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD TO S MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM IN ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 113 FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 15N129W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N
E OF 93W, AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PERSIST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS,
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
TO NEAR 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THU, THEN
PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMNANT LOW OF TD FIFTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16N129W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, SUPPORTED BY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA, COVER THE WATERS FROM 14N TO
23N WEST OF 125W. FARTHER SOUTH, CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8
FT IS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 02N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM 15N TO 25N WEST OF 125W. THE
SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 03N WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
AL
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