426
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP99):
RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO IS STILL ELONGATED, AND THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST
PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (FORMER TD 15-E):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WELL TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT.
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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