693
AXPZ20 KNHC 191509
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98): DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP99): RECENT SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS STILL
ELONGATED, AND THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE INVESTS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 108W. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON EP99, WHICH DEVELOPED FROM THIS
TROPICAL WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS NEAR 81W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND ITS OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N106W TO 07N114W TO
17N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N EAST OF 100W, AND FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W, AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE IN EP99, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, AS WELL AS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SLIGHT SEAS, ARE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH FRESH SPEEDS AGAIN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. OTHERWISE, INVEST EP99 IS CENTERED NEAR 10N106W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MICHOACAN
AND JALISCO OFFSHORES TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE IN EP99, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS
LOCATED NEAR 16N140W. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP98, IS
CENTERED NEAR 11.5N121.5W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N136W
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 25N AND W OF 119W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
COVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE FEEDING INTO EP99, WHERE MODERATE SEAS ARE BUILDING.
ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF TD FIFTEEN-E WILL MOVE W OF
THE AREA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS WITH EP98 AND EP99, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
AL
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