247
ABPZ20 KNHC 191737
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP99):
PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (FORMER TD 15-E):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
REMAIN PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WELL TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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