261
WTNT41 KNHC 192034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT SAT SEP 19 2026
A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE DEPRESSION, THAT
MOSTLY COVERS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, IMPLYING THAT SOME WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING IT. THE MOST
RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS T2.0/30 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY, BUT HAS STARTED TO
SHOW A BIT MORE MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 H AS A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS, AT AROUND 48 H, THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST, WHICH IN TURN WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND SPEED, AND REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND GDMI.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF INTENSE SHEAR, AND SO THERE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 36 H, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SHEAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AROUND 72 H, AND THEN DISSIPATE AROUND
120 H. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF WHEN THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE, AS BOTH COULD
POSSIBLY OCCUR SOONER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
AND IS CLOSELY ALIGN WITH HCCA AND JUST UNDER GDMI FOR PEAK
INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 32.9N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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