801
AXPZ20 KNHC 192058
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING (EP99): PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN ANTICIPATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC.THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE INVESTS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS NEAR 82/83W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND ITS OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N105W TO 10N127W TO
16N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 03N AND EAST OF 107W, AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN
120W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N
TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE WARNING
ASSOCIATED WITH EP99, WHICH HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, AS WELL AS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SLIGHT SEAS, ARE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST
EP99, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 87W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN
LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE IN EP98, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS
SHIFTED WEST OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP98,
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N122.5W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH, LOCALLY STRONG, WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
COVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FEEDING INTO EP99, WHERE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS WITH EP98 AND EP99,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
AL
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