012
AXPZ20 KNHC 200406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
STORM WARNING (EP99): PERSISTENT BUT STILL DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. IN ANTICIPATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, A STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98): SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE: WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE INVESTS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS NEAR 83W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS W PANAMA AND ITS OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 10N E OF 90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N106W TO 11N123W TO
13N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 03N AND EAST OF 107W, AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W
AND 128W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
INVEST EP99 EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP98
EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 117W AND
136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON A STORM WARNING
ASSOCIATED WITH EP99, WHICH HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORES N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. OTHERWISE, EXCEPT
FOR THE GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN OUTER OFFSHORES WHERE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE STARTING TO DETERIORATE DUE TO INVEST EP99, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST
EP99, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALAIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO
DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST EP99.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 87W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN
LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE IN EP98, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS
SHIFTED WEST OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP98,
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N123W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH, LOCALLY STRONG, WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
COVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FEEDING INTO EP99, WHERE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS WITH EP98 AND EP99,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
RAMOS
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