414
ABPZ20 KNHC 200558
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP99):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO,
MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER, SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS DO NOT YET SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, INCLUDING GALE WARNINGS, SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP98):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (FORMER TD 15-E):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, LOCATED WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, REMAIN LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS
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