898
WTNT41 KNHC 201456
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT SUN SEP 20 2026
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 39-52 KT, AND THE MOST RECENT TAFB
DVORAK FIX WAS A T3.0/45 KT. IN ADDITION, THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS
THAT SHOWED A PEAK WIND VECTOR OF 43 KT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
DUE TO UNDERSAMPLING, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THE STORM HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY COMPACT WITH
ITS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 40
N MI.
BOTH A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POSITIVE INTERACTIONS
WITH AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THE TROUGH
LIFTS ON MONDAY, THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD
TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORM'S STRUCTURE BEING MORE IMPROVED AND
THE EXPECTED BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH. THIS SMALL SYSTEM
COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FAY IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED AROUND 010/5 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM BY MONDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE FAY
TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND
GDMI.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
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