881
WTPZ41 KNHC 201456
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODALYS
THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C NEAR THE
ESTIMATE CENTER LOCATION. SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM, HOWEVER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE, BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 285/8 KT. ODALYS SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
NARROW AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER
ABOUT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 3-5 DAY TRACK OF ODALYS DUE ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ITS EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LASTEST CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS,
HCCA, PREDICTION.
ODALYS SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY.
THEREFORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
DECAY-SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND ITS INTENSITY BECOME
HINDERED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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