800
WTPZ41 KNHC 202048
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ODALYS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH VERY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER, AND SOME BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER. THIS IMPLIES SOME NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
STORM. THE ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED
ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, OVER VERY WARM WATERS, AND WITHIN A MOIST
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST
COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ODALYS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24-48 HOURS, A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TURN EASTWARD. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT, ODALYS IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE EAST COULD ALSO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK IN
3-5 DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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