927
AXPZ20 KNHC 202130
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 20/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ODALYS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THEN TURN
EASTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH MON NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR
14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 11
FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE INTENSIFYING,
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY MON NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17-E WILL IMPACT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THIS WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17-E IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK. SWELL GENERATED FROM THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO IMPACT THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO
JALISCO BY MID WEEK, THEN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SEVENTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85/86W, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR
5-10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N104W TO 09N120W. IT
RESUMES WEST OF ODALYS NEAR 12N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 12N
EAST OF 90W, FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W, FROM 06N TO
14N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W, AND FROM 03N TO 17N BETWEEN 130W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL
START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TD SEVENTEEN-E.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORES.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND SEVENTEEN-E, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND
ROUGH SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR
24N AND WEST OF 132W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 12.8N 127.8W MON MORNING,
14.0N 129.0W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.8N
129.6W TUE MORNING, 15.0N 129.4W TUE AFTERNOON, 15.0N 128.7W WED
MORNING, AND 15.1N 127.7W WED AFTERNOON. ODALYS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.9N 126.0W THU
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL.
AL
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