892
WTPZ41 KNHC 210242
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPEDING ODALYS' INTENSIFICATION
RATE APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS, AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT AS
WELL. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE TAFB
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH ODALYS IS MOVING OVER WARM OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR MASS, MODEST NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, LITTLE IF ANY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT-TERM. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY
MODEL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR DIMINISHING, ALLOWING
ODALYS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAY 4 GRADUALLY. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COMMENCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS, BUT ABOVE THE IVCN
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/11
KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A RATHER ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AMPLIFYING TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BY MID-WEEK, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL STORM
POLO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE HFIP HCCA AND THE
GDMI TC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BEYOND DAY 3.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER ROBERTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page