850
AXPZ20 KNHC 210401
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W AT 21/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MONDAY, AND ODALYS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
FORMER TD SEVENTEEN-E IS NOW TROPICAL STORM POLO, WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300 UTC, MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS
ARE NEAR 14 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. TROPICAL STORM POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SEVENTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 16N98W. IT RESUMES
SW OF POLO NEAR 13N108W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W
AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM POLO.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM POLO,
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 103.8W MON MORNING,
15.4N 103.1W MON EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.2N
102.4W TUE MORNING, 15.5N 102.4W TUE EVENING, 16.0N 103.0W WED
MORNING, AND 16.7N 103.7W WED EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 18.2N 106.0W LATE THU. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF TS POLO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORES. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE MONSOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS AND TROPICAL POLO.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 24N AND
WEST OF 135W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 103.8W MON MORNING,
15.4N 103.1W MON EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.2N
102.4W TUE MORNING, 15.5N 102.4W TUE EVENING, 16.0N 103.0W WED
MORNING, AND 16.7N 103.7W WED EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 18.2N 106.0W LATE THU.
ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 14.1N 128.9W MON MORNING, 15.1N 130.0W
MON EVENING, 15.5N 130.2W TUE MORNING, 15.6N 129.5W TUE EVENING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.7N 128.6W WED MORNING, AND
16.0N 127.5W WED EVENING. ODALYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES NEAR 17.3N 125.4W LATE THU.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL.
RAMOS
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