152
WTNT41 KNHC 210836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT MON SEP 21 2026
FAY IS NOW FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY VERTICAL TILTED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW WELL
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
NUDGED DOWN TO 55 KT, WHICH LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT, SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HARSH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS, THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR A
FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING, WITH THE TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW NOW
EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS FORECAST LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FAY APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW PACE, AS EXPECTED, AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LIFTS OUT. A
FASTER SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THROUGH DISSIPATION LATER IN THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND THIS PREDICTION IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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