095
WTPZ41 KNHC 210839
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
ODALYS CONTINUES TO BE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. A METOP-B SCATTEROMETER
PASS AT 0455 UTC REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. MEANWHILE, THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 39 TO 45 KT. BLENDING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH THE HIGHER
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE
CENTER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/11 KT,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SHARP EASTWARD TURN, STEERING THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BETWEEN THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.
ODALYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTERWARD, THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX
SLIGHTLY WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. IN RESPONSE TO
THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, SEVERAL INTENSITY MODELS NO LONGER
SHOW ODALYS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH ODALYS IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSELY FOLLOWING
THE HCCA CONSENSUS AID, AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 13.5N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.2N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.4N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.5N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.9N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.2N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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