177
AXPZ20 KNHC 210951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0950 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 128.7W AT 21/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 136W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 138W. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 12 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND
106W. HOWEVER, SPIRAL RAINBANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ACROSS THE SW MEXICO COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SEVENTEEN-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 87W, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM 02N TO 15 E OF 98W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 14N92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 07N
W OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON TROPICAL
STORM POLO.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM POLO,
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 103.1W THIS AFTERNOON,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.3N 102.5W TUE MORNING, 15.3N
102.0W TUE AFTERNOON, 15.9N 102.4W WED MORNING, 16.6N 103.0W WED
AFTERNOON, AND 17.5N 104.1W THU MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 18.7N 106.6W EARLY FRI. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF TS POLO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORES. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS IN THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND
GUATEMALA EARLY FRI MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WITHIN
THE MONSOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS AND TROPICAL POLO.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS IS NEAR 13.5N 128.7W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 25N AND WEST OF 134W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 103.1W THIS AFTERNOON,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.3N 102.5W TUE MORNING, 15.3N
102.0W TUE AFTERNOON, 15.9N 102.4W WED MORNING, 16.6N 103.0W WED
AFTERNOON, AND 17.5N 104.1W THU MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 18.7N 106.6W EARLY FRI.
ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 14.4N 129.7W THIS AFTERNOON, 15.2N
130.3W TUE MORNING, 15.4N 130.0W TUE AFTERNOON, 15.5N 129.1W WED
MORNING, 15.6N 128.0W WED AFTERNOON, AND STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.9N 126.8W THU MORNING. ODALYS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 17.2N 124.5W EARLY FRI.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL.
RAMOS
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