218
WTPZ41 KNHC 211448
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR THIS MORNING. A LARGE BURST OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C. SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS USING GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT.
SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME, THE MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10
KT, NEARLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL CAUSE ODALYS TO
TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD, AND STEER THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BETWEEN THE FLOW OF THE
TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND TROPICAL
STORM POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI
TRACK AIDS.
ODALYS IS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE
SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL,
HCCA, PREDICTION. THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 13.9N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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