363
WTNT41 KNHC 211452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT MON SEP 21 2026
FAY CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. USING A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.
GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM FAY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR, AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED
BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A DRIER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT RE-STRENGTHENING.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF OUTPUT SHOWS FAY'S DEEP
CONVECTION MOSTLY DISSIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWS THE CYCLONE
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
FAY IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 4 KT, ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE
AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC THROUGH DISSIPATION
LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS, HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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