821
WTPZ32 KNHC 211752
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 PM CST MON SEP 21 2026
..POLO NOW A HURRICANE
...FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH (7
KM/H). A SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY, WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THOUGH MIDWEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES (110 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DROPSONDE DATA IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page