001
WTNT41 KNHC 212036
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT MON SEP 21 2026
STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING
FAY TODAY, WITH MOST OR ALL DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WELL
EAST OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 40 KT, WHICH
WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM FAY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL
LIKELY LESSEN THE WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BY LATE TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BE INGESTING DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL, WHICH
SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS
FAY BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THIS
EVENT COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
FAY IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW NHC FORECASTS. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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