166
WTPZ41 KNHC 212046
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
ALTHOUGH THE STORM STILL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
ON EITHER GEOSTATIONARY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY, A RECENT ASCAT-C
OVERPASS SHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR OF NEAR 43 KT.
THIS, ALONG WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB, SUPPORTS INCREASING
THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT. ODALYS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS COLD
AS THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY, LIKELY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS
AROUND 310/7 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SHARP
EASTWARD TURN OF ODALYS TOMORROW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN ODALYS AND
HURRICANE POLO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK GUIDANCE. SOME
INTERACTION BETWEEN ODALYS AND POLO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OR
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT DECAY-SHIPS INPUT, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS, ALONG WITH A SUFFICIENTLY WARM OCEAN,
SHOULD ALLOW ODALYS TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS OR
SO. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 14.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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