666
AXPZ20 KNHC 212204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W,
OR ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 21/2100
UTC, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE SPIKED UP TO NEAR 27 FT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLO HAS A RAGGED EYE ON BOTH VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGES, WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
AROUND A BROKEN EYEWALL. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 107W. POLO IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION TONIGHT, WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST- NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED LATE TUE INTO WED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE IS POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, BECOMING
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUE, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
THOUGH MIDWEEK. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF
OAXACA, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUE. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
POLO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 130.0W, OR ABOUT
1260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AT 21/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 19 FT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION, WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAS DIMINISHED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE THE CLOUD
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 08N AND WEST 130W. AN
EASTWARD TURN IS FORECAST ON TUE, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
MID-WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W NORTH OF 01N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WESTWARD TO
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND TO 11N86W TO 09N89W AND TO 12N97W.
IT RESUMES TO THE SOUTWHEST OF POLO AT 13N108W, TO 12N115W AND
TO NEAR 16N123W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WIHTIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE POLO.
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE POLO IS NEAR 15.1N 102.7W, OR ABOUT
250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC,
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KT. ESTIMED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM POLO, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE POLO WILL CONTINIUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 14.9N 102.3W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT, TO NEAR 14.9N 102.0W TUE
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT, TO
NEAR 15.4N 102.2W LATE TUE NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 140
KT GUSTS 170 KT, TO NEAR 16.1N 102.9W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 17.0N 104.0W LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE TO
NEAR 17.7N 105.5W THU AFTERNOON. POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.6N
108.6W FRI AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO.
LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
STRENGHTEN TO A HURRICANE AND REACH NEAR 20N121W ON SAT. ALSO, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN A FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD,
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE FRESH OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BETWEEN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA BEGINNING THU
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA POSSIBLY FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICAN POLO AND ON TROPICAL STORM ODALYS.
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE POLO IS NEAR 15.1N 102.7W, OR ABOUT
250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC,
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KT. ESTIMED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS NEAR 14.0N 130.0W,
OR ABOUT 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 25N AND WEST OF 136W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE POLO WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 14.9N 102.3W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT, TO NEAR 14.9N 102.0W TUE
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT, TO
NEAR 15.4N 102.2W LATE TUE NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 140
KT GUSTS 170 KT, TO NEAR 16.1N 102.9W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 17.0N 104.0W LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE TO
NEAR 17.7N 105.5W THU AFTERNOON. POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.6N
108.6W FRI AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 14.5N 130.0W LATE TONIGHT, TO NEAR 15.0N 129.5W
TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT, TO
NEAR 15.2N 128.5W LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 15.3N 127.2W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
70 KT GUSTS 85 KT AND MOVE TO NEAR 16.4N 124.4W THU AFTERNOON.
ODALYS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 17.9N
122.4W FRI AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
AGUIRRE
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