752
WTNT41 KNHC 220233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 AM GMT TUE SEP 22 2026
FAY IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND RANGE FROM 25-38 KT. BASED ON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 215/07 KT, ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE HCCA SOLUTION.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FAY. IN FACT, SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT FAY MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY FROM FAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WHILE THE CYCLONE MAY MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS IN THE
COMING DAYS. THESE CHANGES COULD BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH ANY SUCH RESURGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ANTICIPATED WEAKENING, THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS
FAY BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS
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