475
WTPZ41 KNHC 220258
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
ODALYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT. RECENT
IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PLUME OF CONVECTION WITH COOLING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM, ALONG WITH A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING TO ITS SOUTH. THE LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LOWER, RANGING FROM 37-49 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
CENTERED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH,
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS
AND STALLS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LONGER RANGE, AS SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN
ODALYS AND HURRICANE POLO COULD OCCUR AS IT PARALLELS THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY AROUND 36 H. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PLATEAU IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDWEEK, BEFORE
INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO SLOW WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 14.3N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER ADAMS
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