501
AXPZ20 KNHC 220300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 102.3W AT 22/0300 UTC,
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 115 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR 30 FT OR 9.0 M,
AND MAY BE HIGHER ALREADY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLO HAS
AN EYE ON INFRARED IMAGES, WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND AN EYEWALL. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN
120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE, 210 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 90 NM
IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 0 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 210
NM IN THE SE AND NW QUADRANTS, AND 270 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED LATE TUE INTO WED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SHORTLY, AND A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE BY WED. HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUE.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 130.3W AT 22/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT OR 5.5 M. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM
IN THE SW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 510 NM IN THE
SE QUADRANT, 990 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 150 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT. ODALYS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST POLO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) IS
EXPECTED. THIS CAG ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
FUEL AN ENHANCED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND DEEPEN
CONVECTION OVER LAND, WHILE A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND IS NOT
PRESENT OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS EAST OF 140W DUE TO THE
CIRCULATIONS OF HURRICANE POLO AND TROPICAL STORM ODALYS. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE SYSTEMS AND DESCRIBED
ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 00N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE POLO.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, POLO WILL MOVE TO 14.9N 101.8W TUE MORNING,
15.1N 101.7W TUE EVENING, 15.6N 102.2W WED MORNING, 16.5N 103.2W
WED EVENING, 17.3N 104.5W THU MORNING, AND 17.7N 106.0W THU
EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 18.6N
109.2W LATE FRI. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO.
LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WATERS JUST
BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM
POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN A FEW DAYS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA, EASTERN PANAMA AND
IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAILACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
HURRICANE POLO AND ON TROPICAL STORM ODALYS.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 25N AND WEST OF 133W DUE
TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA, ODALYS AND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE WEST OF
140W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 14.9N 101.8W TUE
MORNING, 15.1N 101.7W TUE EVENING, 15.6N 102.2W WED MORNING,
16.5N 103.2W WED EVENING, 17.3N 104.5W THU MORNING, AND 17.7N
106.0W THU EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 18.6N 109.2W LATE FRI. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS
WILL MOVE TO 14.8N 130.1W TUE MORNING, 15.1N 129.3W TUE EVENING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.2N 128.1W WED MORNING, 15.5N
126.8W WED EVENING, 16.1N 125.4W THU MORNING, AND 16.8N 124.3W
THU EVENING. ODALYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TO 18.3N 122.4W LATE FRI. VERY LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER RESULTING IN VERY
DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
LEWITSKY
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