821
WTPZ41 KNHC 220839
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER OF ODALYS TONIGHT
AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 47 TO 55 KT.
GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
THESE ESTIMATES.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/6 KT. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD,
NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ODALYS IS STEERED WITHIN THE
FLOW OF THE TROUGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A POTENTIAL BINARY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO AS IT TRACKS TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA,
WHICH COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THOUGH
NUDGED SLIGHTLY LEFTWARD AND SLOWED DOWN GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
AROUND DAY 5.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SLIGHTLY DECREASES, WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND MAY EXPERIENCE INCREASED
WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE POLO. THE
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE, ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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