204
AXPZ20 KNHC 220840
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 101.8W AT 22/0900
UTC, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 160 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR 36 FT OR 11.0 M,
AND MAY BE EVEN HIGHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLO HAS A
CLEARLY AND WELL DEFINED EYE ON INFRARED IMAGES, WITH INCREDIBLY
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EYEWALL. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND WED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND POLO
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THU. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 130.4W AT 22/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT OR 6.0 M. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 210 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE, AND 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 410 NM IN
THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ODALYS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ODALYS COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST POLO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN ADDITION THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ENHANCED MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER 22ND THROUGH
THE 25TH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W NORTH OF 01N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND IS NOT
PRESENT OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS EAST OF 140W DUE TO THE
CIRCULATIONS OF HURRICANE POLO AND TROPICAL STORM ODALYS. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE SYSTEMS AND DESCRIBED
ABOVE, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE POLO.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
DATA, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4-7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 14.6N 101.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 15.0N 101.8W WED MORNING, 15.7N 102.5W WED
AFTERNOON, 16.4N 103.7W THU MORNING, 17.0N 105.2W THU AFTERNOON,
AND 17.4N 106.8W FRI MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 18.2N 109.7W EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO
DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO. LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
IN A FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK
OR THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA, EASTERN PANAMA AND
IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE POLO, AND ON TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 24N AND WEST OF 133W DUE
TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA, ODALYS AND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE WEST OF
140W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 14.6N 101.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 15.0N 101.8W WED MORNING, 15.7N 102.5W WED
AFTERNOON, 16.4N 103.7W THU MORNING, 17.0N 105.2W THU AFTERNOON,
AND 17.4N 106.8W FRI MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 18.2N 109.7W EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.1N
130.2W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 15.3N 129.3W WED MORNING, 15.4N
128.0W WED AFTERNOON, 15.8N 126.6W THU MORNING, 16.3N 125.3W THU
AFTERNOON, AND 17.0N 124.4W FRI MORNING. ODALYS WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM OVER 18.5N 123.2W EARLY SAT. VERY LARGE SEAS
GENERATED BY BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER RESULTING
IN VERY DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
LEWITSKY
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