961
WTNT41 KNHC 220841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT TUE SEP 22 2026
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED,
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FULLY EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, FAY'S REMAINING TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIMITED UNLESS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS SOON. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 44 KT. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 230/8 KT, AS IT ROUNDS THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS WEST. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE PREVIOUS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE RIGHT, TOWARDS THE
GDMI AND HCCA AIDS.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD
CAUSE FAY TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY
RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODEL-SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ANY RETURNING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ONLY IN
INTERMITTENT BURSTS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 31.8N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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