973
WTPZ41 KNHC 221445
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND THE CENTER OF ODALYS AS
THE CYCLONE IMPROVES IN ORGANIZATION. THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 49-61 KT.
MEANWHILE, TAFB'S MOST RECENT DVORAK FIX WAS T3.5/55 KT, WHICH STILL
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. BASED ON THE GIVEN DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
INITIAL POSITION OF ODALYS WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND AN OUTAGE OF SATELLITE DATA THIS
MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 355/4 KT. A
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD, THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AFTERWARDS, ODALYS WILL BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH RESULTING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER DAY THREE, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO, WHICH COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, HOWEVER THERE
IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE LOW-CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION AND ANALYSIS. THAT SAID, THE
FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST
AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BETWEEN 48 TO 72 H, THE STORM
COULD ENCOUNTER A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE POLO. THE LASTEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
BUT CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER KATZ/ZELINSKY
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