662
WTNT41 KNHC 221447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT TUE SEP 22 2026
FAY IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH NO CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 30 KT, AND BASED ON THIS THE CYCLONE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UNLESS CONVECTION COMES BACK
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FAY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 230/9 KT, AS IT ROUNDS THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF FAY. DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY, FAY IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHEAR TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 H, THEY ALSO FORECAST STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUED DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. BASED ON THIS AND THE MODEL SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT FAY WILL RE-DEVELOP PERSISTENT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES. THUS, THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OLD FORECAST IN SHOWING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE REMNANT LOW UNTIL DISSIPATION NEAR 120 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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